Open quantitative analysis from the Himalayas

Numbers,
not narratives.

Elections · Economy · Policy · Society

0 Analyses published
Our Projects
Budget · FY 2083/84 2 pieces
Budget · Explainer · May 2026
Reading Nepal's NPR 2.1 Trillion Budget
Finance Minister Dr. Swarnim Wagle tabled the FY 2083/84 budget on 29 May 2026. Where the NPR 2.1 trillion comes from, where it goes, what is genuinely new (sovereign AI compute center, NEA restructuring, three new bond instruments), and what changed in your wallet. No spin - just the numbers.
Published · 29 May 2026
Total Budget
NPR 2,124B
Growth vs Prior Year
+25.2%
Revenue Target
NPR 1,405B
Internal Borrowing
NPR 410B
Capital Allocation
NPR 431B
Budget · Infrastructure · Energy · May 2026
Nepal's data center bet
The Balen Shah government is positioning Nepal as a data center and AI compute hub, powered by clean hydropower. The strategic case is stronger than critics admit. The dry-season electricity problem and Kathmandu's water crisis are real - and neither has a quick fix.
Published · 29 May 2026
Hydro Share of Grid
99.8%
Dry-Season Capacity Drop
40–60%
1 Hyperscale DC Water / Day
19M L
Per Capita Electricity
479 kWh
South Asia Rank
2nd lowest
Economy 1 piece
ECONOMY · MANIFESTO MATH
RSP promised 7% growth. The manifesto's GDP target needs 17%.
Tests three economic targets in the RSP manifesto against compound growth arithmetic. The 7% growth promise and the $100 billion GDP target describe two different five-year futures. Only one can be true.
Published · May 2026
Required Growth
16.9%
RSP Promise
7.0%
Target GDP
$100B
What 7% Delivers
$64.3B
Gap
$35.7B
Opinion 1 piece
Opinion · Technology & Society · Nepali
डिजिटल युगको विरोधाभास
Is technology making us smarter or dumber? An opinion piece in Nepali on the Reverse Flynn Effect, AI-driven cognitive offloading, and what the global research means for Nepal's deepening education crisis.
Published · May 2026
SEE Non-Graded (2024)
52.14%
Attention Span 2004 → 2024
150s → 47s
Nepali Kids w/o Basic Literacy
56%
Reverse Flynn Effect Since
~1975
Brain Regions Less Active w/ AI
32 / 32
Impact Analysis 2 pieces
Impact Analysis · Labour & Economy
The Gulf is Burning. Nepal is Watching.
The 2026 Iran war put 1.73 million Nepali workers in active conflict zones overnight. We map the six impact channels, quantify the remittance exposure, and lay out what the Balen Shah government must do - short-term and long-term.
Published · April 2026
Nepalis in Gulf
1.73M
Remittances % of GDP
28.6%
Monthly Inflow
Rs 193B
Held above poverty
2.6M people
Impact Channels
6 mapped
Impact Analysis · Education Policy
Nepal's Five-Day School Week
Nepal's April 2026 fuel-crisis directive moves schools from a 6-day to a 5-day week - aligning the country with global norms. We quantify the 3-hour weekly transition gap, benchmark Nepal against India and the US, and map what schools can realistically do about it.
Published · April 2026
Weekly change
−9.1%
Annual gap
~110 hrs
Equiv. school days
~18–20
Global alignment
5-day week
Session delay
13 days
Fiscal Analysis 1 piece
Fiscal Analysis · Nepal Federalism
Nepal's Pradesh Structure: White Elephant or Misdiagnosed Problem?
People keep saying the seven Pradesh governments cost too much. We went to the actual audited accounts - the Financial Comptroller General Office's Consolidated Financial Statement - to check. The numbers tell a different story than the headlines.
Published · March 2026
Province Share of Spending
10.7%
Provinces as % of GDP
3.8%
Federal Deficit (FY 2022/23)
Rs 181B
Federal Recurrent Share
69.8%
CapEx Baseline Deviation
±3%
Election Forecasting 1 piece
Election Forecasting · Nepal
Nepal 2082 Parliamentary Election
We modeled all 165 FPTP constituencies and the 110-seat PR allocation before the 2082 election. Built on a zero-sum Dirichlet model with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated against 2079 results. The election wrapped on Falgun 21, 2082 and the post-mortem is now published.
Completed · Post-mortem published
FPTP Accuracy
82 / 165
KTM Valley
14 / 15
RSP Final Seats
182 / 275
Constituencies Modeled
165

Published Forecasts

National · 275 Seats
National Forecast
Full parliament projection - 165 FPTP seats and 110-seat PR allocation combined.
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Constituency · Jhapa-5
Jhapa-5
Balen Shah vs KP Sharma Oli - the most watched constituency of the 2082 cycle.
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Constituency · Sarlahi-4
Sarlahi-4
Gagan Kumar Thapa vs Amaresh Kumar Singh - a high-confidence call that didn't hold.
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